U.S. Job Market Shows Resilience Despite Softening Hire Rate

For the first time in nearly four years, annual growth in the Indeed Job Postings Index (JPI) is positive. Postings on Indeed increased over the month and have trended higher since the start of summer. However, whipsawing official data from the past two BLS employment reports do not change the broad narrative of the labor market: For workers already holding jobs, low layoffs mean the situation is largely stable. But for those looking for work, the squeeze is real, and neither the economy nor monetary policy is currently offering a way out.

Market Conditions

• The quits (1.9%) and layoff (1%) rates remain equally subdued.
• Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% to $37.75 and were 3.1% higher than a year earlier.
• Hires and total separations both changed little at 5.1 million. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed.

The data presents a paradox: employers are posting more openings, but the pace of new hires has slowed significantly. Indeed's index reached 103.5 in September 2026, its highest level since late March and about 3% above the pre-pandemic baseline. This suggests that while jobs exist, businesses are being more selective and slower to fill them.

For job-seekers and expats entering the U.S. labor market: The current environment favors candidates already employed (low layoff risk provides stability) but poses challenges for those actively searching. If you are looking to relocate to the U.S. for work, applications and job-search timelines may be longer than in prior years. Those with specialized skills, higher earning potential, or existing U.S. work authorization (such as OPT graduates) will have a competitive edge in this cautious hiring environment.

Sources

• Indeed Hiring Lab — U.S. Labor Market Snapshot, September 2026
• Bureau of Labor Statistics — Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary