UK Hiring Stalls as Employer Confidence Hits Record Lows Outside Pandemic
The CIPD's latest Labour Market Outlook reveals UK employer confidence remains near pandemic-era lows, with only 26% expecting to increase staffing in the next three months. The labour market has entered a 'low-hire, low-fire' equilibrium as businesses prioritise cost management over growth.
Labour Market at Historic Standstill
UK employer confidence remains close to record lows outside the pandemic, with a net employment balance of just +9, close to its lowest level outside the pandemic. Only a quarter (26 per cent) of employers expect staffing levels to increase in the coming quarter, while 17 per cent anticipate a decrease.
Cost management was the key priority for most (58 per cent) organisations, followed by improving productivity (44 per cent), then growing market share (35 per cent). One in five employers (22 per cent) overall are planning redundancies in the next three months, which includes 26 per cent of public sector organisations and 21 per cent of private sector organisations.
The 'New Normal'
"Hiring has weakened, but redundancy levels haven't risen, leaving us in a 'low hire, low fire' environment that's increasingly looking like a 'new normal'", according to analysis from the CIPD. Of the 2000+ employers surveyed, only 62% of employers plan to recruit over the next three months, with most focusing on maintaining staff levels.
What This Means for Expats and Job Seekers
If you're a foreigner or student considering a move to the UK for work, you should be prepared for intensely competitive recruitment conditions. While redundancies remain low, new permanent positions are scarce, and most hirings are replacement-driven rather than expansion-led. Your best opportunities lie in niche sectors like tech, engineering, and healthcare, where only a handful of categories have bucked the downward trend. Competition for entry-level and generic roles has become particularly fierce; consider investing in specialist skills or a distinctive professional profile to stand out.
Sources
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