Russian Sabotage Escalation Expected This Winter, ISW Warns Poland
Western intelligence warns that Russia may dramatically increase hybrid operations and sabotage against Poland during winter 2026–2027, targeting critical infrastructure including railways and supply routes for Ukraine aid.
Russia may step up sabotage and provocations in Poland during the winter of 2026–2027, with potential targets including railway and logistics infrastructure as well as supply routes for Western aid to Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). On October 16, Jacek Siewiera, former head of Poland's National Security Bureau, stated that the number of hybrid operations in Europe could increase significantly this winter.
The warning follows months of documented Russian sabotage attempts in Poland, including the Starlink station fire and cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure. Winter conditions are expected to provide cover for increased operations, as degraded weather complicates military and civilian detection and response. Poland's strategic position as the main transit hub for NATO military and humanitarian supplies to Ukraine makes it a high-value target for Russian hybrid warfare.
Expected Risk Areas
- Railway and transportation networks
- Energy and power infrastructure
- Telecommunications systems
- Supply convoys heading to Ukraine
As a foreigner or expat, take seriously any reports of infrastructure disruptions during winter months and keep emergency supplies on hand. If you work in logistics, energy, or critical infrastructure, familiarise yourself with your employer's security protocols and contingency plans for sabotage scenarios.
Sources
Independent app, not a government. General information, not advice. The official source:
