Regional Housing Supply Gaps Persist—Vancouver Pivots to Rentals, Calgary Catches Up
CMHC's Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report reveals diverging regional trajectories: Vancouver's housing market is increasingly rental-focused (60% of 2026 starts), while Calgary has narrowed its supply gap after years of construction. Edmonton and other western markets show varied pressures.
Vancouver's housing market is increasingly centred on rental development, with rental apartments accounting for around 60% of housing starts in 2026, compared with less than 20% in 2016, and these units rose by roughly 36% compared to 2025. Developers continue to favour rental projects because they carry less risk than condominium developments under current market conditions, with municipal incentives, rental-specific zoning policies, development charge relief and favourable financing programs helping maintain rental project viability.
Calgary is one of the few major Canadian markets where the housing supply gap to restore pre-pandemic affordability levels has narrowed—years of record housing starts have allowed supply to outpace demand, and Calgary now needs between 4,000 and 5,000 additional units annually over the next decade to restore affordability. After 3 years of record housing starts, Calgary's housing market moderated in the first half of 2026, with total housing starts declining more than 20%, though despite the decline, 2026 starts were above recent historical averages.
Impact for Newcomers
Vancouver's housing supply gap remained stable in 2026, as improving affordability from softer resale and rental market prices worked to narrow the gap, while anticipated population growth and slower projected housing supply growth had the opposite effect.
If you're moving to Vancouver, expect more rental units but higher competitive pressure; the rental market there is the primary growth engine. If Calgary is your destination, you'll find a balanced buyer's market and easing price pressure. Edmonton remains one of the few cities without a measured supply gap. Toronto and other Ontario markets face ongoing pressure. These regional differences should factor heavily into your settlement planning.
Sources
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