Polish Inflation Edges Down to 3.1% in May as Food Prices Cool
Poland's annual inflation rate slowed to 3.1% in May from 3.2% in April, surprising economists with a sharper-than-expected drop despite surging fuel costs.
Consumer prices in Poland rose 3.1% year-on-year in May 2026, down slightly from 3.2% in April and below the 3.6% forecast, according to preliminary data from Poland's statistical office (GUS). The figure marks a continued easing from the 3.2% reading that had raised concerns about renewed price pressures earlier in the spring.
Where prices are moving
The surprise drop was driven by cooling food prices, which rose just 0.5% year-on-year in May compared to 1.9% in April—a sharp deceleration that offset stubbornly high costs elsewhere. On a monthly basis, consumer prices actually fell 0.3% in May, the first monthly decline in a year.
However, not all categories are easing. Fuel and lubricants for transport surged 12.3% compared to a year earlier, reflecting the lingering impact of the Middle East conflict on global oil markets. Energy costs—electricity, gas, and other fuels—rose 5%, while housing and utilities climbed 5% annually. Health costs increased 5.1%, and education remained at 6% inflation. Clothing and furniture continued to see deflation.
What the cooling means
The unexpected moderation gave the central bank breathing room to hold rates steady in June. Most economists expect inflation to remain within the NBP's 1.5–3.5% tolerance band for the rest of 2026, though energy-price uncertainty remains a wildcard. The European Commission forecasts Poland's average inflation will reach 3.6% for the full year before moderating to 2.9% in 2027.
What it means for you
If you're budgeting month-to-month: Your grocery basket is finally stabilizing after years of sharp increases, but transport and energy bills remain elevated. Fuel costs are the biggest pain point—filling a 50-liter tank now costs around 280–300 zł, roughly 9 hours of work at the average wage. If you're earning a foreign salary in euros or dollars: The real purchasing power of your income is holding up better than expected, as food and core goods prices have stopped accelerating. However, utility bills and transport will continue to eat into your budget through the summer.
Sources
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