Mortgage Payments Jump Despite Frozen Interest Rates as Banks Raise Fixed Rates
Despite the National Bank of Poland holding its key rate at 3.75%, average fixed-rate mortgages have surged to 6.4%, creating a 226 PLN monthly payment gap and signalling a wider gap between fixed and variable loans.
Poland's Monetary Policy Council kept its reference rate unchanged at 3.75% at its October meeting, marking the sixth consecutive month of rate stability. Yet for mortgage borrowers, the news is mixed: average fixed-rate mortgages have climbed to approximately 6.4%, while variable rates remain steady at roughly 5.7%, widening the monthly payment gap to 226 PLN for a standard 500,000 PLN mortgage over 30 years.
Why Rates Are Rising Despite Policy Hold
Banks are adjusting pricing ahead of expected future rate hikes. Market derivatives and FRA (forward-rate agreement) contracts suggest that WIBOR 3M could reach 4.64% within six months, consistent with the NBP reference rate rising to 4.5% by Q1 2027. Some economists now flag the possibility of a rate hike as early as Q4 2026. Additionally, many banks have begun transitioning from WIBOR to POLSTR (a new Polish benchmark launched in September 2025), and during that transition, margins have often been adjusted, further pressuring borrowing costs.
What This Means for Expats and Residents
If you have a variable-rate mortgage or are considering one, expect monthly payments to rise significantly if WIBOR climbs as markets anticipate. A 500,000 PLN mortgage could see payments jump by 255 PLN per month if rates spike to 4.64%. First-time buyers should lock in fixed rates now if they can, as 6.4% is still lower than the pre-2024 average. Those with existing WIBOR mortgages should ask their bank about the POLSTR transition timeline and any margin changes.
Sources
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