Inflation Rises to 3.4%, Highest Since June 2025; Central Bank Holds Rates at 3.75%
Consumer prices accelerated sharply to 3.4% year-over-year in August, driven by fuel and energy costs. The National Bank of Poland kept interest rates unchanged at September's meeting, signalling caution despite inflation pressure.
Poland's consumer inflation jumped to 3.4% in August 2026, exceeding forecasts of 3.1% and marking the highest rate since June 2025. The surge was driven almost entirely by the expiration of fuel subsidies and rising energy prices linked to Middle East geopolitical tensions. Separately, electricity and gas costs rose 4.1% year-over-year, compounding household pressure.
On the brighter side, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices actually declined 0.9%, helping to moderate what would otherwise have been an even sharper rise. Clothing and footwear also fell 3.6%, signalling some pockets of price relief.
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) met on September 8–9 and held its reference rate steady at 3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive hold at this level since March 2026. Governor Adam Glapinski noted that while inflation had briefly crept toward the upper limit of the central bank's 2.5% target band (allowing 1.5%–3.5%), future decisions would depend on how geopolitical conflict affects global commodity prices and wage growth.
What This Means for Your Savings and Credit
- Mortgage rates: WIBOR 3M stands at approximately 3.85%, giving total mortgage rates around 5.6–6.1% for foreign buyers (plus typical bank margins of 1.8–2.2%). Rates remain elevated but stable—no immediate cuts expected until late 2026 or early 2027.
- Salaries and purchasing power: If your salary is in PLN, real wage growth is slowing. If you receive income in foreign currency (EUR, USD, GBP), the zloty's relative weakness provides a small hedge.
- Rental and utility bills: Food price relief will help your grocery budget, but heating and electricity bills will continue rising through autumn and winter. Lock in fixed-rate energy contracts now if available.
As a foreigner with a home loan, watch WIBOR movements closely. If the NBP cuts rates in Q4 2026, your mortgage payment could drop. Until then, assume 5.6–6.1% and budget accordingly. Foreign-currency salary earners should lock in 3-month exchange rates for planned large payments (rent, utilities, or mortgage).
Sources
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