ICE Raids Cost Chicago $1.26 Billion in Lost Commerce

A new study shows the steep economic cost of 2025's ICE raids in Chicago. Fear kept many immigrants home, draining the area of more than $1.26 billion in lost retail, restaurant, and sales-tax revenue. The report, published by the University of Illinois Chicago, used anonymous cellphone GPS data to track movement between immigrant and non-immigrant neighborhoods throughout Chicago's Cook County. Researchers found that the routine back-and-forth between these areas collapsed almost immediately after President Donald Trump took office on Jan. 20, 2025, amid rampant rumors and the subsequent sweeps that Chicago would be targeted for immediate Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids.

The impact extended well beyond immigrant communities. The report estimates that decreased consumer mobility cost retail shops and restaurants in non-immigrant neighborhoods roughly $1.26 billion, while costing the state of Illinois an estimated $107 million in lost tax revenue. A 9% drop in retail and a 10% drop in restaurant visits persisted for about a year.

Broader economic ripple effects

This Chicago study is not isolated. Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests harm local economies by reducing consumer spending. The damage is particularly acute because it is not confined to businesses employing immigrants; it affects the entire ecosystem of commerce when fear disrupts consumer behavior.

If you are considering relocating to or staying in the U.S.: understand that immigration enforcement policies affect the broader economy. If you are in a region with active ICE enforcement, be aware that community mobility and consumer confidence may be reduced, which can affect employment opportunities and local business stability.

Sources

• NPR — New report shows the economic toll of ICE raids
• Forbes — New Research Finds ICE Immigration Raids Harm The Economy