Bank of England holds rates at 3.75%, signals potential rise at November meeting
The current BoE base interest rate is 3.75%, following the most recent Monetary Policy Committee on 17 September 2026, where they chose to hold the rate. As of 15 October 2026, overnight index swap pricing implies a 95% probability the Bank of England hikes at the 05 November 2026 MPC meeting.
What the Bank decided
The Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75% on 17 September, with six members voting to hold and three members voting to increase rates to 4%. The Bank warned that interest rates may need to rise if the conflict in the Middle East continues and higher energy prices lead to more persistent inflation.
What's coming next
As of 15 October 2026, overnight index swap pricing implies a 95% probability the Bank of England hikes at the 05 November 2026 MPC meeting, with a market-implied move of +24 basis points. Market pricing on 12 October 2026 implies the Bank of England base rate rises from 3.75% to around 4.5% by April 2027 and 4.9% by October 2027.
Why it matters
The amount UK banks charge their customers to borrow money is often influenced by the base rate. As a mortgage is a form of borrowing money, any change in the Bank of England base rate has the potential to affect your mortgage interest rate. Markets are pricing in around four rate rises by the end of 2027. Mortgage rates remain high following sharp increases in recent weeks.
If you have a mortgage or are considering one: a rate rise in November would push your costs higher if you're on a tracker or variable-rate deal. Even those on fixed rates should note: when your deal expires, you'll be offered a new rate based on the higher base rate. Renters may see landlords push for higher rents as their borrowing costs increase. Savers will benefit from higher returns on savings accounts.
Sources
Independent app, not a government. General information, not advice. The official source:
